The 100-year return level of 3-day precipitation amounts will increase according to the A1B scenario in a large part of Lithuania. The greatest changes are expected in the coastal area and in the Žemaičiai Highlands. During the study period from 1961–2008, the highest recurrence of annual

heavy precipitation events as well as daily and 3-day annual maximum values was observed in western Lithuania. Heavy precipitation in this part of the country prevails in late summer and early autumn, while summer precipitation extremes predominate in the remainder of the country. The changes in all the precipitation indices analysed show predominantly positive tendencies during the study period. At some locations, the changes are statistically significant according to the Mann-Kendall test. The number of cases where daily precipitation exceeds 10 mm and the 3-day annual precipitation maximum increased especially prominently, find more but the trends of 3-day heavy Trichostatin A mouse precipitation recurrence are less clear and significant. Despite the prevailing positive tendencies, changes were negative in some locations. More than one third of heavy precipitation events were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal (type A weather). The location of the centre of a cyclone over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation

during heavy precipitation events. The repeatability of the WZ (western cyclonic) subtype of weather conditions increases sharply during heavy precipitation events. Mixed circulation (type B weather) seems to be the most unfavourable condition for heavy precipitation. The dominance of zonal circulation increases in winter but decreases in summer during

heavy precipitation events. According to CCLM model outputs, the annual amount of precipitation will increase in the 21st century by up to 22%. The largest shifts were simulated for the winter months (by up to 30%), whereas changes in summer precipitation will be insignificant. Pyruvate dehydrogenase lipoamide kinase isozyme 1 The modelled changes will be statistically significant in western Lithuania. The recurrence of daily heavy precipitation events (> 10 mm) will increase in the 21st century. The modelled changes will be statistically significant in almost the whole of Lithuania. The number of such events will change most significantly in the Žemaičiai Highlands and coastal lowlands (by up to 30%). The recurrence of 3-day heavy precipitation events (> 20 mm) will also increase significantly (by up to 50%). Both scenarios (A1B and B1) foresee large positive and statistically significant changes in the easternmost as well as the western parts of Lithuania. “
“In most publications on the problems of global and regional models applied to the analysis of climate system changes, data from various reanalyses (The ERA-40 Project 2000, Kistler et al. 2001, Kanamitsu et al. 2002) have been used to validate model results.